Weather has a great influence on VHF propagation and AIS conditions vary from flat at around 30 - 40 miles to possibly 100's of miles during an inversion. I'm situated in East Anglia, around 10 miles inland and especially at this time of year, have received shipping around to the Solent, or off the coast of Denmark depending which way the duct is running. You need a nice warm day, cooling off rapidly in the evening and an inversion may take place. It decays rapidly without warning, and you are back to square one! Likewise, early morning 0700 - around 0900hrs is another likely time. You can get early warning by listening to say Volmet on the VHF airband. There are 3 different frequencies, normally I can only pick up a scratchy signal from one on my scanner with the squelch fully opened! A couple of weeks ago I picked up a solid signal from all 3 at around 2100hrs. That is my prompt to watch and listen out for anything outside my usual range!
Peter